I'd Love to Change the Economic Data

But The Truth hurts

In the iconic song I'd Love to Change the World by Ten Years After, Alvin Lee sings about the chaos and disillusionment of a world seemingly spiraling out of control. "Everywhere is freaks and hairies, dykes and fairies, tell me, where is sanity?"

That same sentiment echoes through the financial markets, where misaligned data and manipulated narratives obscure the true economic reality. Investors and everyday Americans alike are left frustrated, wondering why the headline numbers don’t match their lived experiences. It’s time to pull back the curtain and expose the truth behind the fine print.

The Labor Market Mirage

Take the latest jobs report, for instance. The headline unemployment rate (U3) came in at a seemingly stable 4.1%, but this number is nothing more than a smokescreen. The real unemployment rate, U6—which includes discouraged workers and those forced into part-time employment—has surged to 8%, its highest level in over two years. The labor market isn’t just cooling; it’s deteriorating rapidly.

The fine print reveals the true state of employment. Full-time jobs plunged by -1.2 million, while part-time jobs soared by 610,000. This shift indicates a struggling economy where workers are unable to secure stable, well-paying jobs and are instead forced into multiple part-time roles just to stay afloat.

"Population keeps on breeding, nation bleeding, still more feeding, economy." The disconnect between the headline number and the reality is staggering, yet policymakers and financial pundits continue to push a narrative that fails to reflect what’s actually happening on Main Street.

The Market’s Reality Check

With unemployment rising and inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, investors are scrambling for safety. And where are they putting their money? Bonds and Gold.

Bond yields have risen sharply, with investors buying as much bonds as they can with bonds up 3.5% YTD, while enjoying monthly dividends that bring total year-to-date gains to 5%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has entered a correction, down -10% from its 2025 highs and -7% year-to-date. The biggest winner? Gold. The ultimate hedge against uncertainty is up almost 10% in 2025, proving its resilience amid economic turmoil.

But while savvy investors are repositioning, everyday Americans are trapped in their 401(k)s, exposed to a stock market that’s eroding their wealth. "Bees make honey, who needs money? No, not poor me." This wealth divide is not accidental—it’s systemic. Those who read between the lines make gains, while those who trust the headlines get blindsided.

The AI Bubble: A Case Study in Deception

Nowhere is the gap between perception and reality more evident than in the AI sector. Take Broadcom’s latest earnings report. On paper, they beat Wall Street estimates, but a deeper dive reveals accounting gymnastics at play.