Investors, Beware the Ides of March

Bond yields invert, stocks slide, and real estate stumbles.

In ancient Rome, Calpurnia, the wife of Julius Caesar, was tormented by ominous dreams and pleaded with her husband not to go to the Senate on March 15—the infamous Ides of March. Caesar ignored her warnings, dismissing them as baseless fear. Hours later, he was assassinated.

Today, Gregory Crennan, Chief Market Strategist at Golden Coast Consultants, issues his own dire warning—not of political betrayal, but of financial peril. His cautionary note to bullish investors comes as key economic indicators flash red, much like Calpurnia’s premonitions before Caesar’s fall. From the deepening yield curve inversion to the sharp decline in AI-fueled stocks, from surging margin debt to plummeting home sales, history suggests ignoring these signs could lead to financial ruin.

Crennan urges investors to heed these signals before it’s too late, as the market faces a turning point eerily reminiscent of past crashes. Will today’s bulls learn from history, or will they, like Caesar, walk blindly into their fate?

The Bond Market’s Ides of March Warning

The first major warning sign for investors in 2025 comes from the bond market. The 10-year and 3-month Treasury bond yield inversion has deepened, signaling heightened investor fears of a looming recession.

Historically, this yield curve inversion has been one of the most reliable indicators of an economic downturn. Investors are flocking to long-term bonds, seeking to lock in current yields amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to combat a slowing economy.

If the Fed begins easing monetary policy, yields on long-term bonds could fall into the 3% range, making today’s rates significantly more attractive. This rush into bonds underscores growing concerns that economic conditions will deteriorate in the coming months, reinforcing recessionary fears and adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile financial landscape.

The Real Estate Market: A Bubble Ready to Burst?

Recent data from Redfin reveals that housing inventory has climbed to its highest level since 2020—just before the pandemic-driven economic uncertainty. Even before COVID-19 upended the global economy, recessionary warning signs were emerging, and today, similar patterns are unfolding. Pending home sales have plunged 6% year-over-year, continuing a downward trend that began in 2022 when the Federal Reserve initiated interest rate hikes.

With borrowing costs at historic highs, many Americans are unable to afford homes at today’s inflated prices, leading to a record low in housing demand. According to basic supply-and-demand economics, when supply outstrips demand, price corrections become inevitable. Unless mortgage rates significantly decrease or wages rise sharply, housing prices will likely decline to reestablish market equilibrium.

Stock Market Recent Declines

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