The Return of Tariffs

Striking Back on Day One

The Return of Tariffs: Trump’s Second Act and the Economic “Star Wars” Saga

Eight years of economic upheaval have unfolded like a gripping Star Wars trilogy, with Donald Trump’s rise, fall, and return to power serving as a dramatic backdrop. The first act, A New Hope (2016), saw Trump’s election as a tax-cutting champion promising to supercharge the economy. Act Two, The Empire Strikes Back (2020), marked Joe Biden’s victory, a reversion to inflationary status quo, and the struggle of an economy battered by government failed policies. Now, in Act Three—The Return of Tariffs—Trump prepares his return to the White House in 2025, vowing not just to reinstate his trade wars but to escalate them dramatically.

The looming trade wars may feel to investors like stepping into Admiral Ackbar’s trap: the stock market’s recent highs could set the stage for a spectacular ambush. As in Star Wars, the saga builds to a climactic moment—one that could fundamentally reshape the economic galaxy.

Stock Market: “It’s a Trap!”

When Admiral Ackbar famously warned of a trap, his words became a cautionary metaphor for misplaced confidence—a fitting parallel for today’s overheated stock market.

Following Trump’s win earlier this month, stocks rallied, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting record highs. Yet, beneath this euphoria lies the stark reality of overvaluation:

1. P/E Ratio: At 38, the SP500 price-to-earnings ratio far exceeds its historical average of 16-17, suggesting frothy expectations.

2. Market Cap-to-GDP Ratio: The U.S. Stock market trades at elevated levels relative to GDP (at 200%), a red flag never before seen in past speculative bubbles.

3. Price-to-Sales Ratio: At 5.74, for the Nasdaq 100, this metric underscores the premium investors are paying, often for companies with unsustainable revenue growth.

Like Palpatine luring the rebels into a trap, these soaring valuations mask underlying risks. Rising interest rates, economic stagnation, and policy uncertainty—exacerbated by Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric—could all trigger a sharp market downturn.

Economic Reality: “From a Certain Point of View”

Obi-Wan Kenobi’s cryptic wisdom applies perfectly to today’s economic narrative. On the surface, metrics like job growth and robust GDP growth paint an optimistic picture. But dig deeper, and troubling signs emerge:

• Credit Card Debt: Americans are grappling with rising balances, driven by inflation and stagnant wages.

• Bankruptcies: Financial stress is mounting, particularly among small businesses.

• Housing Market: 24 year high interest rates have choked mortgage demand and priced out countless buyers causing the real estate market to be in a recession.

The economy’s outward strength resembles the Death Star—formidable in appearance yet hiding critical vulnerabilities. Trump’s aggressive tariff plans threaten to exploit these weak points, risking a transformation of today’s precarious stability into outright calamity.

In Star Wars, every twist reshapes the galaxy’s balance of power. Similarly, Trump’s return heralds a pivotal economic shift. His proposed trade agenda is nothing short of seismic: a 10% tariff on China and sweeping 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, effectively dismantling regional free trade agreements. These measures, slated to be among his first executive orders on January 20, 2025, signal an era of heightened protectionism with far-reaching implications for global trade and the domestic economy.